中国驻欧盟使团与欧洲《议会》杂志合作刊发的中欧特刊:迟福林:建立中欧智库合作网络

作者:中国(海南)改革发展研究院院长 迟福林  时间:2015-07-08

 

  编者按:2015年6月30日,由中国驻欧盟使团、欧洲之友、中国(海南)改革发展研究院、中国公共外交协会和中欧协会联合举办的第五届中欧论坛在比利时布鲁塞尔举行,会议开幕当日中国驻欧盟使团与欧洲《议会》杂志合作刊发的中欧特刊发表了中改院院长迟福林教授的署名文章《迟福林:建立中欧智库合作网络》,现将英文原文及中文发表如此。

       全文如下:

  共建“一带一路”给深化中欧战略合作带来历史新机遇面对世界经济复杂深刻的变化,欧亚共建“一带一路”将促进形成统一的欧亚大市场,进而推进欧亚大陆之间的投资贸易自由化进程。未来5-10年,以“一带一路”基础设施的互通互联为依托,加快建设中欧自贸区,是释放中欧经贸合作潜力、务实推动欧亚经济融合与一体化的重要实施路径。未来几年通过加快推进中欧自贸区进程,进一步提升投资贸易便利化水平,预计双方贸易将以每年9%左右的速度增长,2020年有望实现1万亿美元的目标。如果中国服务贸易到2020年达到1.2万亿美元、中欧服务贸易比重由2013年的13.2%提高到20%的情况下,2020年中欧服务贸易总额将达到2000-2200亿欧元的规模。 

  一带一路”拓宽中欧智库合作空间。中欧智库合作在“一带一路”建设中具有独特作用。首先,它在服务决策、促进多层次政府间政策沟通交流中有着独特作用。从实际看,双方智库在促进和服务中欧政策沟通和政策决策中发挥了重要作用。其次,它在沟通民心、凝聚“一带一路”共识中有着独特作用。智库的重要职能之一是引导社会舆论,让符合发展趋势的声音成为主流民意,促进民心相通,为中欧的政策沟通营造民意基础。深化中欧智库合作,有利于营造共商、共建、共享“一带一路”的良好社会氛围。第三,它在推动中欧自贸区建设中有着独特作用。中欧共建“一带一路”,需要以服务市场开放和服务贸易自由化为重点,加快推进中欧自由贸易进程。未来5-10年,以“一带一路”基础设施的互通互联为依托,加快建设中欧自贸区,是深化双方战略合作的重要路径。中欧智库在中欧自贸区方面的合作研究和深入交流,将为政策决策提供独立客观的研究与咨询。 

  成立中欧智库联盟,为共建“一带一路”提供智力支撑。共建“一带一路”,推动中欧投资贸易自由化进程,面临着诸多问题与挑战,这对中欧智库在“一带一路”建设中发挥作用提出了现实需求。建议成立“一带一路”中欧智库联盟,搭建双方多层次的交流机制和合作平台。例如,可共同举办中欧“一带一路”智库论坛,合作研究多边、双边“一带一路”共建规划和工作机制等,为中欧围绕“一带一路”建设开展多边、双边合作提供决策咨询服务。建议双方智库尽快就中欧自贸区建设开展独立的合作研究。尽快启动中欧自贸区的可行性研究,在战略研判国际经济贸易发展趋势与客观分析中欧贸易投资潜力的基础上,向双方政府提出独立客观的建议。 

   China-EU think tank alliance could boost trade relationship 

  Written by Chi Fulin on 30 June 2015

  The global economy is undergoing profound change. Confronted with this, Europe and Asia joint building of the 'Belt and Road' initiative will contribute to the development of a large integrated Eurasian market, and further deepen trade and investment ties.

  In the coming five to 10 years, key building blocks will advance Eurasian economic integration: improving infrastructure connectivity between the EU and China, completing the bilateral investment treaty negotiations, and moving towards a free trade agreement (FTA).

  If the two sides were to agree on an ambitious FTA, it could give a boost to annual trade of up to nine per cent which could reach €0.89 trillion by 2020.

  By the end of the decade, on the condition that China's foreign trade in services reaches €1.07 trillion and that the share of service trade in the total China-EU trade rises from 13.2 per cent in 2013 to 20 per cent in 2020, the total volume of service trade between the two sides could be as large as €200-€220bn.

  The 'Belt and Road' initiative expands the possibilities for cooperation between think tanks in the EU and China. This collaboration between EU and Chinese think tanks could have an important role to play in constructing this initiative.

  First, they could play a unique role in promoting macro policy coordination and supporting policymaking.

  Second, they could enhance people-to-people ties and promote consensus for implementing the 'Belt and Road' initiative.

  An important role of think tanks is to identify trends before they become mainstream and to guide and influence public opinion as well as policymakers.

  Finally, they could play a unique role in undertaking independent research on the potential benefits of a China-EU FTA. Building a China-EU think tank alliance will provide intellectual support for construction of the 'Belt and Road'.

  To address the global challenges they each face, Europe and Asia need to join hands in building and promoting trade and investment liberalisation across Eurasia.

  This is why we need EU and Asian think tanks to work together. I would hope that if such an alliance can be established, it would lead to further platforms and mechanisms such as an annual China-EU think tank forum on the 'Belt and Road'.

  There is also scope for joint research projects and cooperation programmes, while the alliance could, finally, provide consulting services for those directly involved in the building of an integrated Eurasian market.

  Think tanks in both China and the EU could start joint studies of the feasibility of the proposed China-EU FTA as early as possible.

  On the basis of in-depth analysis of the megatrends in the world economy and global trade, as well as the potential of investment and trade cooperation between China and Europe, think tanks could submit policy recommendations to their respective governments.

  About the author 

  Chi Fulin is president of the China institute for reform and development

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